基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

基于概率积分法的采动坡体稳定性预测与分析

地下采煤会引起地表沉降、变形,甚至引发山体、河堤滑坡等地质灾害。采动坡体的稳定性研究一直是采矿工程中实际关心的问题。该文首先介绍分析了概率积分法移动变形稳态、动态预测模型以及基于极限平衡理论的单滑面采动坡体稳定性预测模型,提出了使用概率积分法结合Knothe时间函数对采动坡体稳定性进行预测分析的方法,并使用C#及XML Schema语言编制了相关的计算程序。最后,结合一个工程实例对采动坡体稳定性和动态变化过程进行了预测与分析,通过实测数据验证了提出方法的可行性,得出了采动引起的坡体下沉是影响坡体稳定性的主要因素,并提出了在坡体拉伸阶段进行注浆加固的方法。     

RECENT TECTONIC DEFORMATION ANOMALY AND EARTHQUAKES IN GANSU-NINGXIA-QINGHAI AREA

1　IntroductionAccordingtogeologicalstructure ,theGansu Ningxia Qinghaiareabelongstothenortheastmar ginofQinghai Tibetblock .Thisareahasbeenpaidmuchattentionby geo specialistsinChinaandabroadbecauseofitssignificanttectonicmovement,itsintensiveseismicity ,anditsimportanceinearth quakehazardmitigation .IntheDevelopmentPro gramonNationalKeyBasicResearchesundertheProject“MechanismandPredictionofContinentalStrongEarthquakes”,themechanismsofcontinen talstrongearthquakesarestudied ,usinghypo…     

一种从经纬度网格资料获得正方形网格资料的插值方案

本文提出了一种把经纬度网格点上的气象要素值转化到正方形网格点上的多项式插值方案。对插值方案作了稳定性讨论和定量及定性分析。结果表明,这种插值方案方便可行,而且有广泛适用性。     

Numerical manifold method for dynamic nonlinear analysis of saturated porous media

It is well known that the Babuska–Brezzi stability criterion or the Zienkiewicz–Taylor patch test precludes the use of the finite elements with the same low order of interpolation for displacement and pore pressure in the nearly incompressible and undrained cases, unless some stabilization techniques are introduced for dynamic analysis of saturated porous medium where coupling occurs between the displacement of solid skeleton and pore pressure. The numerical manifold method (NMM), where the interpolation of displacement and pressure can be determined independently in an element for the solution of u–p formulation, is derived based on triangular mesh for the requirement of high accurate calculations from practical applications in the dynamic analysis of saturated porous materials. The matrices of equilibrium equations for the second‐order displacement and the first‐order pressure manifold method are given in detail for program coding. By close comparison with widely used finite element method, the NMM presents good stability for the coupling problems, particularly in the nearly incompressible and undrained cases. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the validity and stability of the manifold element developed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

昆仑山口大地震与地形变异常的讨论

针对昆仑山口大地震，总结了多种地形变（大地测量）手段所显示的异常变化及其时空分布，结果显示：8．1级大震前存在空间尺度大，时间尺度的地形变前兆异常，简要介绍了相关的异常图像，给出了初步解释，并对未来震情的发展进行了探讨，认为近期内强震活动向华北迁移的可能性不大。     

形变大地测量学的进展、问题与地震预报

简要概括了形变大地测量学的革命性进展，研讨了它的科学特色、功能和定义以及对地球科学和防灾减灾的推动。形变大地测量学有助于从根本上击破多年来制约地震预报的“瓶颈”，但也存在不少急待解决的问题。着重研讨了在21世纪前10年，形变大地测量学如何依托多年的学科积累并充分受益于人造卫星和数字化等新技术，开展创新性研究和试验以推进地震预报。为此，对当前的研究工作提出了12条科学技术途径。最后对学科名称提出了建议。     

Prediction of Stellar Atmospheric Parameters using Instance-Based Machine Learning and Genetic Algorithms

In this article we present a method for the automated prediction of stellar atmospheric parameters from spectral indices. This method uses a genetic algorithm (GA) for the selection of relevant spectral indices and prototypical stars and predicts their properties, using the k-nearest neighbors method (KNN). We have applied the method to predict the effective temperature, surface gravity, metallicity, luminosity class and spectral class of stars from spectral indices. Our experimental results show that the feature selection performed by the genetic algorithm reduces the running time of KNN up to 92%, and the predictive accuracy error up to 35%. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Restricted Three-Body Problem: An Approximation of its General Solution – Part One – the Manifold of Symmetric Periodic Solutions

This paper gives the results of a programme attempting to exploit ‘la seule bréche’ (Poincaré, 1892, p. 82) of non-integrable systems, namely to develop an approximate general solution for the three out of its four component-solutions of the planar restricted three-body problem. This is accomplished by computing a large number of families of ‘solutions précieuses’ (periodic solutions) covering densely the space of initial conditions of this problem. More specifically, we calculated numerically and only for μ = 0.4, all families of symmetric periodic solutions (1st component of the general solution) existing in the domain D:(x ₀ ∊ [−2,2],C ∊ [−2,5]) of the (x ₀, C) space and consisting of symmetric solutions re-entering after 1 up to 50 revolutions (see graph in Fig. 4). Then we tested the parts of the domain D that is void of such families and established that they belong to the category of escape motions (2nd component of the general solution). The approximation of the 3rd component (asymmetric solutions) we shall present in a future publication. The 4th component of the general solution of the problem, namely the one consisting of the bounded non-periodic solutions, is considered as approximated by those of the 1st or the 2nd component on account of the `Last Geometric Theorem of Poincaré' (Birkhoff, 1913). The results obtained provoked interest to repeat the same work inside the larger closed domain D:(x ₀ ∊ [−6,2], C ∊ [−5,5]) and the results are presented in Fig. 15. A test run of the programme developed led to reproduction of the results presented by Hénon (1965) with better accuracy and many additional families not included in the sited paper. Pointer directions construed from the main body of results led to the definition of useful concepts of the basic family of order n, n = 1, 2,… and the completeness criterion of the solution inside a compact sub-domain of the (x ₀, C) space. The same results inspired the ‘partition theorem’, which conjectures the possibility of partitioning an initial conditions domain D into a finite set of sub-domains D i that fulfill the completeness criterion and allow complete approximation of the general solution of this problem by computing a relatively small number of family curves. The numerical results of this project include a large number of families that were computed in detail covering their natural termination, the morphology, and stability of their member solutions. Zooming into sub-domains of D permitted clear presentation of the families of symmetric solutions contained in them. Such zooming was made for various values of the parameter N, which defines the re-entrance revolutions number, which was selected to be from 50 to 500. The areas generating escape solutions have being investigated. In Appendix A we present families of symmetric solutions terminating at asymptotic solutions, and in Appendix B the morphology of large period symmetric solutions though examples of orbits that re-enter after from 8 to 500 revolutions. The paper concludes that approximations of the general solution of the planar restricted problem is possible and presents such approximations, only for some sub-domains that fulfill the completeness criterion, on the basis of sufficiently large number of families.     

成都市冬季重污染日气象条件成因分析及预报

本文通过对成都10个重污染日进行天气学分析,将污染浓度与气象要素进行聚类、研究了重污染日形成原因及污染浓度与气象要素的关系。在此基础上,建立了SO_2、TSP日平均浓度分级预报方程。